According to the International Energy Agency, the aviation industry is responsible for around 2% of global carbon dioxide emissions, and aviation emissions are expected to double by the middle of this century as demand for domestic and international air travel increases. To meet the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to well below 1.5°C through emissions reductions, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has set a target of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. This raises the question: are there any technically and economically viable strategies to achieve that goal within the next 25 years?
To address this question, a team of researchers from the MIT Center for Sustainability Science Strategy (CS3) and the MIT Aviation and Environmental Laboratory have spent the past year analyzing options for decarbonizing the aviation industry in Latin America, where air travel is expected to triple by 2050 and aviation-related emissions in the region are expected to double from current levels.
Chief among these is the development and introduction of sustainable aviation fuels. Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) are currently produced from low- and zero-carbon sources (feedstocks) such as municipal waste and non-edible crops, and require little or no changes to aircraft systems or refueling infrastructure, potentially performing on par with petroleum-based jet fuels with as little as 20 percent of the carbon emissions.
Focusing on Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru, the researchers assessed the availability of SAF feedstocks, the cost of each SAF pathway, and how the introduction of SAF would affect each country’s fuel use, prices, emissions and aviation demand. They also explore how efficiency improvements and market-based mechanisms could help the region achieve its decarbonization goals. The team’s findings are published in a CS3 Special Report.
SAF Emissions, Costs, and Sources
The researchers projected that in an ambitious emissions reduction scenario aimed at limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees and increasing SAF use in Latin America to 65% by 2050, aviation emissions would fall by around 60% by 2050 compared to a scenario in which current climate policies are not strengthened. Reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 will also require other measures, including operational efficiency and air traffic improvements, aircraft renewal, alternative propulsion methods, and carbon offsetting and removal.
As of 2024, jet fuel prices in Latin America are expected to be around $0.70 per liter. Based on current feedstock availability, the researchers expect the cost of SAF in the six countries studied to range from $1.11 to $2.86 per liter. They warned that rising fuel prices could hit the aviation industry’s operating costs and overall air travel demand if strategies to contain price increases are not implemented.
In a 1.5°C scenario, the total cumulative investment required to build new SAF production plants between 2025 and 2050 is estimated at $204 billion across the six countries (ranging from $5 billion in Ecuador to $84 billion in Brazil). The researchers identify feedstocks ranging from ethanol derived from sugarcane and corn to jet fuel, to esters and fatty acids processed from palm oil and soybean, as the most promising feedstocks for SAF production in Latin America in the near future.
“Our findings suggest that SAFs offer an important pathway to decarbonization, which should be combined with economy-wide emissions reduction policies that use market-based mechanisms to offset remaining emissions,” said Sergey Partsev, lead author of the report, deputy director of MIT CS3 and senior research scientist at the MIT Energy Initiative.
recommendation
The researchers conclude their report with recommendations for national policy makers and aviation industry leaders in Latin America.
They stressed that as the aviation industry moves to decarbonize its operations, government policies and regulatory mechanisms are needed to attract SAF investment to the region and create sufficient conditions to make SAF commercially viable. Without an appropriate policy framework, SAF requirements will impact the cost of air travel. For fuel producers, stable, long-term oriented policies and regulations will be needed to build robust supply chains, build demand to establish economies of scale, and develop innovative pathways to SAF production.
Finally, the research team recommends regional cooperation in designing SAF policies: a unified decarbonization strategy for all countries in the region would ensure competitiveness and economies of scale, helping to achieve long-term carbon reduction goals.
“Given the availability of feedstock and regional costs, Latin America could be a potential major player in SAF production,” said Angelo Gergel, principal research scientist at MIT CS3 and co-author of the study. “Combining SAF requirements with government support mechanisms would ensure sustainable decarbonization while enhancing regional connectivity and access to air transport for disadvantaged communities.”
The research was funded by LATAM Airlines and Airbus.
